Climate Change Impact on Design and Building Criteria of Infrastructure Assets - Simulation Model
thesisposted on 08.06.2021, 12:39 by Youcef Brahimi
Current design codes and criteria for the construction of infrastructure assets is unable to account for anticipated environmental changes due to climate change. This study developed a simple simulation model based on MS Excel Precision Tree to consider the effects of adding a correction factor for climate change to justify then intent to proceed or not with a construction project. After many iterations, it appears that climate change can result abandoning certain projects as any investment in them would to be beneficial. A simulation model was also developed to determine the allocation of funds for an initial construction project using climate change control parameters. This model showed that for a 100-year span, on average, there would be a deficit caused by costs involved with repairing the asset due to climate change deterioration. This can be counteracted by attributing 95% contingency to reduce the risk of climate change damage to 5%.