Prediction of stock switching points by financial news
thesisposted on 22.05.2021, 16:30 by Saeede Sadat Asadi Kakhki
The purpose of this study is to detect stock switching points from historical stock data and analyze corresponding financial news to predict upcoming stock switching points. Various change point detection methods have been investigated in the literature, such as online bayesian change point detection technique. Prediction of stock changing points using financial news has been implemented by different types of text mining techniques. In this study, online bayesian change point detection is implemented to detect stock switching points from historical stock data. Relevant news to detected change points are retrieved in the past and Latent Dirichlet Allocation technique is used to learn the hidden structures in the news data. Unseen news are then transferred to the trained topic representation. Similarity of relevant news and unseen news are used for prediction of future stock change points. Results show that stock switching points can be detected by historical stock data with better performance comparing to random guessing. It is possible to predict stock switching points by only fraction of financial news and with good result in terms of common performance metrics. According to this research, traders can take advantage of financial news to enhance prediction of future stock switching points.